Local butcher weighs in as poultry market shifts
By Myrek Zastavnyi
WARWICK — Shoppers scanning the meat case for relief from soaring beef prices may find some comfort in chicken — at least for now. But industry analysts say the current window of relatively stable poultry prices may not last much longer.
National poultry production has climbed in recent years, helping keep chicken affordable compared with other proteins. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. broiler production increased from roughly 46.5 billion pounds in 2024 to about 47.5 billion pounds in 2025 and is projected to edge slightly higher in 2026. Increased output has helped moderate wholesale prices after spikes seen in mid-2025.
However, economists say the market may be nearing a turning point.
“Chicken continues to benefit from high beef prices and the shift toward more protein in American diets,” said agricultural economist David Anderson, formerly with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. “But when prices drop too much, producers eventually pull back on production, and that usually leads to higher prices later.”
Wholesale chicken breast prices peaked near $2.70 per pound in mid-2025 before sliding closer to $1.20 by the end of the year. At the retail level, however, consumers often see a different story. Government consumer price data earlier this year showed chicken breast prices averaging just over $4 per pound nationally — slightly higher than the previous year — reflecting transportation costs, retail markups and other market factors.
Bird Flu Remains a Wild Card
While supply has been strong, poultry producers remain cautious due to the continuing threat of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu.
Since 2022, outbreaks of the disease have forced the culling of more than 100 million birds across the United States, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Although most outbreaks have affected egg-laying flocks rather than broiler operations, disruptions to breeder flocks can ripple through the entire poultry supply chain.
“Broiler farms can recover relatively quickly,” said poultry specialist Greg Archer, a professor of poultry science who studies industry production trends. “But breeder flocks — the birds that produce the fertilized eggs for hatcheries — take much longer to rebuild. If those are hit, the impacts can last more than a year.”
For producers, that means strict biosecurity measures remain the industry’s first line of defense.
“The industry is really pushing biosecurity to stay ahead of the disease,” Archer said. “It’s a concern that isn’t going away anytime soon.”
Fertility Trends Also Under Watch
Another factor quietly shaping the poultry market is hatchability — the percentage of fertilized eggs that produce viable chicks.
Research suggests fertility rates in breeder flocks currently average around 75 percent, meaning roughly nine out of every dozen eggs produce viable broiler chicks. Some long-term studies warn those rates could decline over time, which would require more eggs to maintain current production levels.
Even modest changes in hatchability can have major implications in an industry that produces more than 9 billion broiler chickens annually in the United States.
What It Means for Hudson Valley Shoppers
For local consumers, the broader poultry market ultimately shows up in the price tags at grocery stores and butcher counters.
At Sam’s Meat Warehouse in Warwick, owner Stephen Kitar says chicken remains one of the few proteins still offering relative value compared with beef.
“Chicken is still the most affordable protein for many families,” Kitar said. “But people should understand that poultry prices don’t exist in a vacuum. When beef prices climb — as they have recently — demand for chicken goes up, and that can push prices higher too.”
Kitar noted that while wholesale chicken prices fluctuate frequently, retail costs depend on multiple factors including fuel, feed costs and processing capacity.
“We’ve seen beef hit record levels, and that drives customers to look for alternatives,” he said. “Chicken becomes the default choice for many households, especially heading into grilling season.”
Demand Shifting with Consumer Tastes
Changes in how Americans eat are also shaping the poultry market. Restaurant demand for wings and chicken sandwiches has surged over the past decade, while grocery shoppers increasingly favor boneless breast meat and ready-to-cook products.
“Chicken producers have adapted to meet demand for specific cuts,” Anderson said. “But a chicken only has two wings and two breasts, so supply constraints still affect certain products.”
Seasonal demand also plays a role. As summer approaches, the grilling season often increases demand for wings, thighs and drumsticks — cuts that tend to move quickly at backyard barbecues.
Outlook: Stable for Now, But Watch the Market
For now, analysts expect chicken to remain one of the more affordable proteins available to consumers, even if prices begin to inch upward later in the year.
“I expect production growth to slow somewhat,” Anderson said. “And when that happens, prices typically move higher.”
For Warwick shoppers comparing options at the meat counter, the bottom line may be simple.
“Even if chicken prices begin to rise, they will likely remain lower than beef,” Kitar said. “But in the meat industry and markets, nothing stays cheap forever.”
Local Meat Distributor Open to the Public
Despite the often dramatic swings in national meat markets, local shoppers have been somewhat insulated from the worst price volatility. At Sam’s Meat Warehouse in Warwick, owner says the store’s wholesale purchasing model allows it to keep prices more stable than many traditional retail outlets. The result, Kitar said, is that customers can still find premium beef, poultry, and pork cuts without the sticker shock seen elsewhere. “Our goal has always been simple,” he said. “Bring in the highest quality meats we can source and offer them at prices that families and local restaurants alike can afford.”
For shoppers looking to stretch their grocery budget without sacrificing quality, Sam’s Meat provides a unique option. Operating as a wholesale meat distributor that is also open to the public, the warehouse-style butcher shop provides premium beef, poultry, pork and specialty cuts typically reserved for restaurants and food-service buyers.
Location: 1749 Rt 17A, Florida NY 10921
Phone: (845) 651-MEAT
Hours: Monday–Friday 10 am – 6 pm, Saturday 9 am – 6 pm, Sunday 10 am – 4 pm
More info: Follow Sam’s Meat Warehouse on social media for weekly specials and seasonal promotions.
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Editor’s Note: Meat prices — from chicken to beef and pork — remain closely tied to global supply chains, feed costs and animal health issues, cost of fuel, etc. In upcoming editions, the Warwick Valley Dispatch will take a deeper look at how rising beef prices are reshaping consumer habits across the Hudson Valley.
