From the promise of cheaper groceries to the price of gasoline, from foreign wars to Washington’s reflecting pool, Donald Trump made himself the centerpiece of the midterms.On election night, the voters returned the favor — with interest.
ANALYSIS & OPINION | By Lisa Pillivant
On January 22, 2025, just two days after Donald Trump returned to the White House, the Warwick Valley Dispatch featured a particularly memorable presidential quotation on its front page:
“Oh, you are going to have a lot of fun watching television.”
It was an unusual promise from an incoming president, particularly one whose campaign had been built around considerably more practical matters: cheaper gasoline, affordable groceries, peace abroad, prosperity at home and an America so successful that Americans will be “the envy of every nation”.
“The golden age of America begins right now” proclaimed Trump in the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2025.
Nearly two years later, we can confidently say that Trump has delivered on at least one of those promises.
The television has been spectacular.
The groceries? Not so much.
Gasoline? Ask anyone who has filled a pickup truck lately.
The promise to avoid new foreign wars? That one appears to have been misplaced somewhere between the campaign trail and the Pentagon.
But the television? Oh, the television has been one hell of a roller-coaster ride—full of suspense and heart-pounding excitement, unexpected turns and enough drama to keep everyone watching.
And on this election night, the president who has dominated the headlines and television screens may finally be approaching this season finale.
This time, however, it’s the audience that gets to decide whether the show goes on.
Be Careful What You Ask For
During the closing weeks of the campaign, Trump traveled the country promoting Republican candidates in states that had once seemed comfortably beyond Democratic reach.
These were not all traditional battlegrounds. Some were states where Trump had won by double digits, where Republicans had spent years treating Democratic opposition as a charming local eccentricity, roughly equivalent to owning a snowblower in Miami.
But with economic dissatisfaction growing and the president’s popularity becoming a liability, the GOP found itself in an increasingly awkward position.
Its candidates needed Trump’s supporters.
They just weren’t always certain they needed Trump.
The president, meanwhile, had a remarkably simple campaign strategy: “Pretend I’m on the ballot.”
He said it repeatedly. He urged supporters to imagine that a vote for their Republican congressional candidate was really a vote for him.
It was an extraordinary invitation to turn a midterm election into a national referendum on one man’s presidency.
And voters took him at his word.
They went to the polls. They thought about Trump. They considered his promises, his policies, his priorities and the increasingly peculiar distance between what he had campaigned to accomplish and what he seemed determined to discuss.
Then they voted.
Just not necessarily the way he had intended.
It may go down as one of the most expensive exercises in political self-sabotage since Napoleon decided Moscow looked inviting in winter.
A Blue Wave Even Democrats Didn’t Dare Dream About
Imagine the television networks struggling to keep up.
A Democratic victory in a competitive suburban district? Expected.
A Republican incumbent losing in a state Trump carried comfortably? Surprising.
Another one? Concerning.
Then another. And another.
By midnight, the familiar election-night maps begin looking as though somebody spilled blue ink across a Republican campaign consultant’s desk.
Districts long considered safely Republican suddenly found themselves in unfamiliar political territory. From North and South Carolina to Ohio and Texas, once-comfortable Republican strongholds faced unexpectedly competitive races. And then there was Kansas, where, as of press time, the outcome remained uncertain, raising the tantalizing possibility of a Democrat winning a congressional seat with a Republican history stretching back to the 1930s.
The 1930s.
Franklin D. Roosevelt was president. Babe Ruth was still a household name. Americans listened to radio broadcasts on furniture-sized receivers, and nobody had yet invented the political consultant who could explain away a 15-point defeat as an encouraging sign of grassroots enthusiasm.
Back then, voters worried about bank failures, unemployment and the Great Depression.
Nearly a century later, voters are once again worried about what they can afford.
And if the emerging electoral picture tells us anything, it is that a growing number of voters may have decided that whatever the president is selling, they have already paid enough.
The Democrats capture the House.
Then, against expectations, they capture the Senate.
The magnitude of such victory is almost embarrassing. Democratic strategists who had spent the previous year carefully managing expectations suddenly found themselves explaining victories they had barely included in their most optimistic private spreadsheets.
Trump supporters, meanwhile, discover a political sensation previously experienced by an extensive collection of former Trump associates:
The realization that standing too close to Donald Trump can sometimes become more of a political liability than an advantage. What may initially seem like a valuable alliance can quickly turn into an uncomfortable association when political fortunes shift, leaving candidates to discover that proximity to power does not always translate into support at the ballot box.
Welcome to the Club
In the aftermath, MAGA finds itself joining a remarkably crowded fraternity of those who discovered that loyalty to Donald Trump comes with no guarantee of a happy ending.
Former business associates. Lawyers. Cabinet secretaries. Campaign advisers. Political allies. NATO partners. European governments. Even America’s closest neighbors, Canada and Mexico.
The membership roster is practically international.
What unites this diverse collection is not ideology, geography or personal affection.
It is the experience of discovering that a relationship with Donald Trump can become considerably less rewarding once his interests and yours stop traveling in the same direction.
For years, Trump supporters accommodated the president’s grievances, defended his controversies, excused his contradictions and applauded his political instincts.
They were told his personal popularity would carry the party to victory.
They were told his rallies would deliver the votes.
They were told his instincts were unmatched.
Now, in election-night reckoning, they are discovering what happens when the candidate who isn’t on the ballot becomes the biggest issue in the election.
One national Republican strategist put the predicament succinctly in remarks to Axios:
“It’s Donald Trump’s midterms. He gets all the credit if we win. He gets all the credit if we lose.”
There is something wonderfully democratic about that arrangement.
For once, the president would receive exactly the credit he requested.
All of it.
The Price of Groceries Versus the Reflecting Pool
Perhaps the most revealing episode of the campaign came when Trump devoted attention to renovations in Washington, including the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
Now, there is nothing inherently wrong with maintaining national monuments. The capital belongs to the American people, and its historic spaces deserve proper care.
But timing matters.
When families are struggling with grocery bills, farmers are absorbing higher operating costs, motorists are watching fuel prices and small businesses are trying to keep their doors open, an extended discussion of improvements to Washington’s reflecting pool may not be the most persuasive closing argument.
Former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, hardly a conventional Democratic sympathizer, publicly criticized Trump’s fixation on Washington beautification projects while Americans were preoccupied with living expenses and the war with Iran.
Think about the political significance of that for a moment.
When even Marjorie Taylor Greene thinks the president has lost touch with the concerns of ordinary Americans, the Republican Party may have a messaging problem.
The issue is not whether the reflecting pool needs repairs.
It is whether a president understands that most voters are more concerned about the water bill at their own house than the water in a ceremonial pool hundreds, or even thousands of miles away.
And there is a deeper question.
Why does a president who built his political career promising to represent forgotten Americans appear so fascinated by the visible monuments of his own administration?
Is it a legacy?
Vanity?
A desire to leave something permanent behind?
Or simply the conviction that an impressive construction project makes a more attractive television segment than an honest conversation about the price of eggs?
Whatever the answer, voters have now had an opportunity to weigh those priorities for themselves.
And unlike the reflecting pool, the election results cannot be renovated to suit anyone’s preferences.
The Kremlin Question Nobody Wants to Answer
There is another subject that deserves scrutiny, even if it makes both political parties uncomfortable.
Russia.
For years, Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin has raised questions about judgment, strategic priorities and the president’s unusual willingness to challenge traditional American alliances while seeking accommodation with the Kremlin.
Those questions have only grown as Washington’s policies toward Ukraine and Russia have shifted.
The administration’s decisions involving military assistance, weapons availability and sanctions relief deserve serious examination.
In October, the White House issued an executive order invoking waiver authority under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, while preserving certain other sanctions.
The administration maintained that imposing the waived measures at that stage could interfere with efforts to negotiate peace.
That explanation deserves consideration. So does the question of whether withholding additional pressure strengthens Washington’s negotiating position or improves Moscow’s leverage.
Questions surrounding military assistance, intelligence cooperation and satellite communications also require careful examination, with distinctions made between government decisions, private providers and operational circumstances.
The larger question remains: Has current policy strengthened Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, improved the prospects for a durable peace or given Moscow additional negotiating room?
Former world chess champion and Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov has long framed Trump’s conduct toward Putin in especially provocative terms.
In a PBS interview, Kasparov argued that Trump’s decisions were so favorable to Putin that he struggled to imagine what the president would have done differently if he were acting as a Russian asset.
That is Kasparov’s opinion, not proof of an intelligence relationship.
And the distinction is important. There is no established public finding that Trump is a KGB agent or knowingly operates on behalf of the Kremlin.
But citizens do not need to embrace a conspiracy theory to demand an explanation of presidential decisions.
They can examine the consequences.
Who benefits when allies lose confidence in American commitments?
Who benefits when NATO unity is strained?
Who benefits when uncertainty over Western military assistance complicates Ukraine’s defense?
Who benefits when the president of the United States spends more time criticizing allied leaders than explaining how his policies will constrain Moscow?
And what has the administration accomplished through its diplomatic approach to Vladimir Putin?
A president may have legitimate reasons for pursuing diplomacy, negotiating sanctions or reassessing military commitments. Those reasons should be presented and defended.
What should not be accepted is the notion that questioning the wisdom of those decisions somehow constitutes disloyalty.
Quite the opposite.
Demanding accountability is what citizenship requires.
Back Home, Voters Know the Difference
But even in the current national Democratic landslide, Orange County offers a reminder that American politics is not entirely governed by presidential popularity.
Local voters know their candidates.
They know who returns telephone calls, who attends community events, who has helped secure funding, who has worked with local governments and who can be found when something goes wrong.
Consider the races on Orange County’s last night in-person voting results.
The blue wave that appeared poised to lift Democratic candidates across the country encountered an unexpected obstacle when it reached Warwick.
The wave came ashore. And here, at least, it fizzled.
While the national political conversation revolved around Donald Trump, Warwick voters appeared more interested in the people whose names were actually on their ballots.
Election-night returns from eight Warwick-area polling locations showed Republican candidates maintaining a strong advantage across several major contests. In the 18th Congressional District, Republican Jackie Auringer received 3,696 votes (53.87%), compared with 3,165 (46.13%) for Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan. In the 42nd State Senate District, Republican Jennifer Figueroa led Democratic incumbent James Skoufis 3,438 to 3,126, or 52.38% to 47.62% in the reported two-candidate tally. Conservative candidate Joshua Blumenthal also appeared on the ballot.
The Republican advantage was even more pronounced in the Orange County sheriff’s race, where incumbent Paul Arteta received 4,151 votes (61.04%), compared with 2,649 (38.96%) for Democrat Bernie Rivers. Republican Assemblyman Karl Brabenec recorded another substantial showing, collecting 4,636 votes in the reported returns.
Although preliminary and limited to the reporting locations, these results presented a striking contrast to the national Democratic momentum.
What explains Warwick’s apparent resistance to the political tide?
One possible answer lies in the strength of its local Republican organization, the visibility of its elected officials and the relationships built through years of community involvement. In Warwick, politics is not conducted exclusively through television advertisements, national slogans or presidential endorsements. It happens at Town Board meetings, volunteer firehouse dinners, community fundraisers and neighborhood gatherings. It is measured by returned telephone calls, constituent assistance and the willingness of public officials to remain accessible long after the campaign signs disappear.
Republican leaders and their supporters can point to an established record of local governance and community engagement, giving voters something tangible to evaluate beyond the controversies dominating Washington. Credit may also belong to the Warwick Republican Committee and its members, whose organizational work, voter outreach and election-day efforts are essential components of any successful local campaign.
Campaigns, after all, are not won by signs alone. They require organization, volunteers and the ability to turn political support into actual votes.
The Warwick returns suggest that local Republicans succeeded in maintaining that support, even as the national political environment presented challenges for their party.
That does not mean every Republican voter endorsed Trump’s policies, nor does it establish that local leadership or party organization alone produced the margins. It does, however, illustrate an important distinction: Voters can reject a president’s national agenda without automatically rejecting every candidate who shares his party affiliation.
Ryan’s emphasis on Hudson Valley representation, veterans’ issues and constituent advocacy, Skoufis’ record of state funding and community involvement, and Arteta’s responsibilities for county law enforcement all gave voters individual records and priorities to consider. Their challengers likewise offered competing arguments on affordability, accountability and government performance.
Ultimately, a recognizable name and a demonstrated record can matter more than the national political label attached to either. That does not mean incumbency guarantees good government or that party loyalty should substitute for accountability.
It means voters are capable of making distinctions.
Washington may prefer to divide Americans into two obedient armies, each expected to follow the latest national political grievance. But Warwick’s election-night returns offer a reminder that elections are also about the people whose names actually appear on the ballot.
The blue wave may have traveled across the country, but in Warwick, the Republican shoreline held.
The Greatest Democratic Campaign Manager in History?
Which brings us to the most entertaining possibility of all.
Consider the fact that last night election results really did deliver Democrats an overwhelming House majority, a surprise Senate majority and victories in Republican strongholds that had resisted Democratic candidates since Roosevelt was in the White House.
In fact, Democrats accomplished something even their most enthusiastic strategists considered wildly improbable.
Who would deserve the credit?
Their candidates?
Their campaign managers?
Their fundraising operations?
Their policy proposals?
Certainly, some of it.
But it would be difficult to ignore the man who spent months telling Americans that the election was really about him.
The man who promised cheaper living costs and then found himself defending policies voters associated with higher expenses.
The man who promised a more peaceful world and then faced renewed military conflicts abroad.
The man who asked Americans to judge Republican candidates through the lens of his presidency.
The man who seemed to believe that the remedy for declining political popularity was simply more Donald Trump.
One could almost imagine Democratic National Committee officials sending a fruit basket to the White House.
A large one.
With a handwritten note:
Thank you for your extraordinary contribution to our electoral success.
Which leads to one final question.
Garry Kasparov famously challenged Americans to consider what Trump might do differently if his objective were to advance Vladimir Putin’s interests.
We offer a less sinister, considerably more entertaining variation:
If Donald Trump had secretly set out to deliver Congress to the Democratic Party, what exactly would he have done differently?
Would he have made the election a referendum on himself?
Would he have campaigned in states Republicans thought were safe?
Would he have encouraged voters to ignore the individual candidates and concentrate on his personal record?
Would he have spent the final days talking about Washington renovations while Americans worried about groceries and gasoline?
Would he have insisted that every Republican victory belonged to him?
And would he have created a political environment in which Republican candidates had to spend more time explaining the president than explaining themselves?
Of course, none of that makes Trump a Democratic operative. The suggestion is satire, not an allegation.
But in the blue-wave election we have just witnessed, the consequences would have been difficult to distinguish from the work of a remarkably effective Democratic campaign strategist.
Perhaps the greatest one Democrats never hired.
There is an old political saying that when your opponent is making a mistake, you should avoid interrupting him.
The Democrats, in this fictional scenario, didn’t interrupt.
They simply watched.
And watched.
And watched.
Until Election Day.
Back on January 22, 2025, this newspaper published Trump’s promise that Americans would have a great deal of fun watching television.
For all the promises that became more complicated after Inauguration Day, this one has aged remarkably well.
Because in the end, Donald Trump may have delivered the most spectacular television event of his second presidency.
An election-night broadcast in which the biggest loser wasn’t even on the ballot.
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* The opinions expressed in this editorial reflect only those of the contributing writer(s) and not necessarily
those of the Warwick Valley Dispatch management, staff, or sponsors.
